Session Details

Title: Loving Estimation: Maintaining Safety with our Terrible Terrible Guesses

Speaker: Michael Rogers

Time/Room: 4:00 PM/Marquis

Abstract: "I can do without the problem solving and coding. Where I really thrive is estimation!" said nobody ever. We've all been there before. A client is working against the clock to meet a trade show deadline and casually throws out "when can I expect x?" You and your team excuse yourselves and hide in a conference room. You break down the work. You assign story points. You roll bones and gaze at entrails. And then you pad everything. Everything. And then you're wrong. We're always wrong. But what if you could be less wrong? Estimation doesn't have to be a scary endeavor full of expensive and unreliable guesswork. It doesn't have to be an exchange where the Chief Engineer ("I can have the engines operational in four hours") gets overruled by the Captain ("You have two hours!") (why did he ask for estimates if he already knew the answer?). In this presentation I'll talk about how, after many years of learning-by-screwing-things-up, I've come to approach estimation -- and how laid back estimation can be.

Topic: Agile Methodologies

Target Audience: Intermediate

Keywords: estimation,monte carlo,forecasting,safety